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1996-11-22
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Foreign Correspondent
Inside Track On World News
By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
Eric Margolis <emargolis@lglobal.com>
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WAR ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS
by
Eric Margolis 18 Nov 1996
The threat of a new Israeli-Syrian war hangs over the
Mideast. US military intelligence has increased the
probability of an Israeli-Syrian clash from 50% to 60% as a
result of the election of PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his
hardline Likud government, and its rejection of the Israeli-
Palestinian peace process,
Failure of talks last week over Hebron, and Egyptian
warnings to Israel not to abandon the peace process,
increased fears that either side might seek a military
solution to break the political impasse - particularly after
Israel's adamant refusal to return the strategic Golan
Heights that it seized from Syria in the 1967 War.
Syria and Israel accuse one another of planning war. Both
have recently made military threats and troop movements. My
extensive study and inspection of Syrian and Israeli
military deployments on Golan lead me to the following
scenarios:
1. Syria's best strategy: A short, violent punch to
recapture Golan, by a concentrated armored thrust through
Israeli forts and field works, backed by massed artillery,
within 24 hours, ie. before Israel can mobilize reserve.
Damascus then asks the UN to end fighting, so cementing its
gains.
2. Israel attempts to crush Syria's military power once and
for all. Israeli armor smashes directly through thick
Syrian field fortifications on Golan, and drives on Damascus
- which even today is in range of Israeli guns on Golan.
Or, Israel pushes deeper into Lebanon, seizes the Beirut-
Damascus highway, and outflanks Damascus from the north,
enveloping much of the Syrian Army and destroying it in
detail.
Syria has 7 armored, 3 mechanized, 2 infantry and one
special forces divisions, with 4,600 tanks, 3,700 armored
vehicles, 1,630 towed and 450 self-propelled guns. The
Syrian Air Force: 579 combat aircraft.
Fully mobilized, Israel fields 12 heavy armored divisions,
and 4 division equivalents of paratroopers and infantry,
with 5,000 tanks, 5,900 armored vehicles, 400 towed and
1,114 self-propelled guns. Israel has 700 combat aircraft.
In addition, Israel has 3 nuclear capable self-propelled
artillery battalions, each with 12 175 mm guns, deployed
near Golan, plus some 200 nuclear weapons deliverable by
aircraft, Jericho or Lance missiles, and possibly, nuclear
mines.
The enormous arsenal on both sides is stunning. Germany, for
example, invaded Russia with 2,200 tanks on a 1,000 mile
front. In a war against Syria - about 175 miles of front-
Israel can mass twice that number of tanks. Israel's highly
mechanized forces are mobile and optimized for lightening,
manoeuvre warfare. Syria's troops are strong on the defense,
but are poorly coordinated and deficient in large-scale
offensive operations.
What's more, these statistics tell only half the story.
Israeli equipment readiness is over 90%; Syria's only 60%.
This means in wartime, 40% of Syria's tanks and aircraft may
be inoperative.
Two-thirds of Syrian warplanes are only capable of air-
defense. Nearly all Israeli fighters can conduct both air
combat and ground attack. Israeli surge sortie rate is 5
combat missions daily. Syria's only 2. All this adds up to
a 4 to 1 Israeli air superiority over Syria. .
Equally important, Israel's air force is 2.5 technological
generations ahead of Syria's early 1970's Soviet aircraft.
Israel's superb pilots flying US-supplied F-15's and F-16's,
backed by one of the world's most sophisticated air combat
and electronic warfare systems, would quickly massacre
Syria's Air Force. Israeli sensors atop Golan and radar
planes can even `see' Syrian aircraft the moment they start
their engines on most of Syria's airfields. .
Syria's has a dense, but obsolescent Soviet-era air defense
system. Israel's remotely piloted vehicles, electronic
warfare, and top-secret STAR-1 anti-radar system, could
quickly blind Syria's radars, allowing the Israeli Air Force
to savage Syrian ground units on the open, treeless Golan
Heights.
While Syria has a large number of tanks, the majority are
obsolescent T-54/55/62 Soviet models, whose guns cannot penetrate
the frontal armor of Israel's newer tanks. Even Syria's T-72's
are of limited combat value against Israel's Merkava tanks. In
previous wars, Israeli tankers attained a 10:1 kill ratio over
their Syrian foes.
In 1973, Syria caught Israel by surprise and almost
recaptured Golan. However, Syrian armored vanguards were
ordered stop short of the Hight's rim when Israel began to
deploy and arm tactical nuclear weapons. The Syrian High
Command lives in deathly fear of an Israeli nuclear strike
against its massed armored divisions - and against Damascus.
Syria does not stand a chance against Israel, and would
suffer catastrophic defeat - a second Desert Storm. Near
bankrupt Syria cannot afford to replace aircraft and tanks
lost in combat. Just as in Iraq, Syria's elite divisions are
the backbone of the government. If they are destroyed, the
unloved Asad regime falls. This would probably ignite
tribal-religious- military civil war, causing fragile Syria
to end up like Lebanon.
Israeli hawks have long advocated a decisive war to smash
Syria into ethnic fragments. Doing so would remove the last
challenge to Israel's absolute military domination of the
Mideast, and assure its status as sole regional superpower.
Syria is also without Arab allies, Egypt is too dependent on
US money to risk Washington's ire; Jordan a de facto ally of
Israel; Iraq hors du combat; Iran militarily weak, and out
of range; Saudi Arabia a military zero.
Syria could barrage Israeli cities with frightening, but
militarily useless, Scud and SS-21 missiles. Israeli
retaliation against Syria would be devastating. Syrian use
of chemical or biological weapons is highly unlikely.
Besides nuclear weapons, Israel has the Mideast's largest
arsenals of chemical and biological weapons. Syrians are
not suicidal.
War thus appears both unlikely, and unprofitable. But being
the Mideast, anything remains possible - as wary Israelis
and Syrians know all too well.
copyright eric margolis 1996
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For Syndication Information please contact:
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Eric Margolis
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